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UC SAN DIEGO INDONESIA EXPERT AVAILABLE TO COMMENT ON AFTERMATH OF INDONESIA’S UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Andrew MacIntyre, associate professor at UC San Diego’s Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IR/PS), is available to comment on issues related to Indonesia’s June 7 presidential election. His areas of expertise include political institution processes, democratization, foreign policy, economic policy and business-government relations.

While MacIntyre is not predicting specific outcomes of individual parties, he has strong opinions about how Indonesia’s political structure will evolve in the aftermath of this month’s elections. He also feels that the election process itself, for the first time in more than 40 years, appears likely to be "reasonably fair."

"Regardless of how the various parties do, I’m predicting that Indonesia is heading for a coalition government with a very shakey coalition structure," MacIntyre states. "Further, it is likely that the effective powers of the presidency will be radically reduced, with the new president being dependent on the parliament for both legislation and survival."

MacIntyre foresees inherent problems in Indonesia’s emerging democratic form of government. "Notwithstanding the good and careful planning of Indonesia’s democratic reformers, the system they are moving toward is going to be very fractious and will promote gridlock," he said. "This will not be good for the economy. However, it is a process of political transition that Indonesia must endure as it moves gradually toward a workable form of democratic government."

The United States will play a bigger role in Indonesia, MacIntyre predicts: "While U.S. involvement in Indonesia has been overshadowed by Japan in the past, this is likely to change in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. U.S. firms are much better positioned to take advantage of the corporate ‘fire sale’ that is going to take place. As a result, we are likely to have U.S. economic interests close in on Japanese interests. This will have subtle but significant long-term foreign policy implications."

Currently, MacIntyre is working on a book examining the impact on economic policy management of the evolving political frameworks of Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia.

MacIntyre offers these opinions about issues related to this month’s election:

• Asian Financial Crisis: Although Indonesia was the most severely affected by the Asian financial crisis, it has stabilized faster than expected. The key issue now will be the ability of any new coalition-based government to restore investor confidence – particularly among Chinese Indonesians.
• Corruption: Under Suharto’s 30-year rule, organized corruption became an art form. But, Indonesia is about to discover that the one thing worse than organized corruption is disorganized corruption.
• Military: If Indonesia is unable to fine-tune its political processes over the next couple of years, we are likely to see a democratic breakdown and the return of more direct military involvement in power.
• World Bank funding: The World Bank’s holding back on funding promises was a "sensible short-term solution." Otherwise, it would have been accused of taking sides in the presidential elections. But other versions of the problem will resurface after the election as members of the new ruling coalition scramble for resources.
• East Timor: The sad reality is that, at least in the short term, the future is bleak for the people of East Timor whichever way they go. If they leave Indonesia, there will be violent resistance from pro-Indonesia groups. While independence is indeed the best hope for peace, this will be a very difficult and long-term process.

MacIntyre, who heads IR/PS’s ASEAN Pacific Project, is a frequent visitor to Indonesia. Recently, his research focused on political institutions and corruption in the country. MacIntyre has wider interests in comparative and international politics in East Asia and has conducted field research in Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. His books include: Business and Politics in Indonesia (author), Business and Government in Industrializing Asia (editor) and The Dynamics of Economic Policy Reform and the Southwest Pacific (co-editor).

Prior to joining IR/PS in 1994, he was a senior lecturer at Griffith University in Australia. He received a B.A. in political science, a M.A. in international relations and a Ph.D. in political science from Australian National University.

Established in 1986, UCSD’s Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IR/PS) is the University of California’s only professional school of international affairs and the only graduate school in the United States to focus exclusively on the Pacific Rim. More information on the graduate school can be found on its web site at: http://www-irps.ucsd.edu.