Clinton, McCain Likely to Face Off in November, UCSD Elections Expert Predicts

Ioana Patringenaru | February 4, 2008

UCSD political scientist Gary Jacobson spoke Wednesday at the Faculty Club.

Sen. Hillary Clinton will probably win the Democratic presidential nomination — but barely, while John McCain will become the Republican nominee, UCSD political scientist Gary Jacobson predicted during a talk Wednesday night at UCSD. He also said he foresees a close general election in November.

California could play a key role in deciding the Republican nominee, Jacobson said. He said he also believes that Democrats will be able to increase their majority in the Senate and will hold on to the House. Jacobson spoke in front of an audience of about 100 during the latest installment of the Social Sciences Supper Club Series at the UCSD Faculty Club. The topic of his talk was chosen for its timeliness, said Jeff Elman, interim dean of UCSD’s Social Sciences Division.

Feb. 5, better known as Super Tuesday, will mark perhaps the biggest round of primary voting in the nation’s history, with 22 states up for grabs on the Democratic side and 21 on the Republican side. More than 40 percent of each party’s delegates will be chosen on this date. California will be by far the day’s biggest prize, with 441 Democratic delegates and 173 Republican delegates at stake.

So far, Clinton and McCain have led in the polls here. Clinton has 21 delegates and four primary wins, while Sen. Barack Obama has 34 delegates and two wins. On the Republican side of the ballot, McCain leads with 89 delegates and three primary wins, followed by Mitt Romney, with 27 delegates and three wins and Mike Huckabee with seven delegates and one win.

Candidates offer voters a chance to make history, by choosing the first female president, the first black president, the first Mormon president and the oldest candidate to be elected president, Jacobson said.  But they also are all vying for an electorate that’s deeply divided and disgruntled, Jacobson said.

Polls show that Republicans are still largely supportive of President George W. Bush, while his approval rate with Democrats has remained in the single digits for more than a year. Most of this partisanship stems from the electorate’s view of the Iraq war, the political scientist said. Here too polls show that Republicans largely support the war, while Democrats have opposed it for years.

“This division, this partisanship, have helped to shape this year’s primary campaigns,” Jacobson said.

The Democratic candidates

On the Democratic side, candidates advocated a break from the Bush administration’s policies. Clinton sought to present herself as the inevitable candidate, Jacobson said. “Her problem is that she is not universally loved, even among Democrats,” he added.

Obama turned out to be Clinton’s strongest challenger. “But he is also really green,” Jacobson said. The senator from Illinois truly became a viable candidate after winning the Iowa caucuses, when he demonstrated that he could win white votes, the political scientist said.

At this point, the Democratic electorate is divided between older, low-income and less-educated voters who support Clinton and young, affluent and black voters who support Obama, Jacobson said. This could lead to a close vote on Super Tuesday and perhaps even a brokered convention later on, he also said.

The Republican candidates

On the Republican side, Jacobson dismissed Huckabee’s chances to clinch the nomination because of his narrow appeal to voters. Meanwhile, McCain has emerged as the leading candidate after a roller-coaster ride. His campaign originally faltered because of his support of immigration reform, Jacobson said. But this issue seems to have failed to catch fire, he added. McCain initially also was hurt by his support for increasing the number of U.S. troops stationed in Iraq. But now, in the public’s opinion, the surge seems to have stabilized the situation in Iraq, Jacobson said. “He looks good on national defense and he has the best chance of winning,” he also said.

Standing between McCain and the Republican nomination is Romney, who appeals to the Wall Street side of the Republican Party, Jacobson said. But he also faces criticism because as governor of Massachusetts, he took positions that don’t fit in with mainstream Republican ideology, the political scientist added. Romney has since changed his views, but some in the party don’t believe his conversion is sincere, he added.

Romney also faces an uphill battled because about 20 percent of voters say in polls that they are not sure they would vote for a Mormon candidate, Jacobson pointed out. However, John F. Kennedy faced similar odds as a Catholic when he was elected in 1960, the political scientist pointed out. California will play a key role in the Republican contest, Jacobson said. “If Romney doesn’t do well in California, McCain has it locked up,” he explained.

McCain appeals to independents, Jacobson said, and polls show that he would defeat both Obama and Clinton in the general election, albeit by a small margin. “This election in November will be very close, very competitive,” he said.