Visiting Scholar Argues Against Long-Term U.S. Military Presence in Iraq

Ioana Patringenaru | April 21, 2008

Pollster Daniel Yankelovich spoke about the war in Iraq Thursday at the UCSD Faculty Club.

Should the United States strengthen its military presence in the Muslim world? Or should it rely on diplomacy and economic incentives instead?

Visiting scholar and long-time pollster Daniel Yankelovich wrestled with these questions Thursday in front of a record crowd at the Social Sciences Supper Club at the UC San Diego Faculty Club. Yankelovich has been called “the dean of American pollsters,” Jeff Elman, interim dean of Social Sciences, said Thursday. He is perhaps best known for founding in the 1970s The New York Times/Yankelovich poll, which has since become The New York Times/CBS News poll.

Yankelovich relied heavily on polling data to make the argument that the war in Iraq and the war on terror will become the central issue in this year’s general election campaign. “John McCain’s character and political interests are going to make it so,” the researcher predicted.

Yankelovich went on to argue that this would be bad for the country. It would keep the electorate and the country divided and unable to deal with the other issues it must solve, including its economic woes, he said. But the Democratic candidates have failed to produce an anti-war narrative that is appealing and compelling for the American public, he added.

“We need to shift back
to the position where military intervention is the last resort.”

“Bill Clinton has said that the country has a tendency to support issues that are strong but wrong,” Yankelovich said. “I think that’s where we are.”

The pollster also said he believes politicians have been using flawed frameworks to understand Iraq and what he called “the long war” against terrorism. “You could understand this issue a lot better if you looked at it from the social sciences’ point of view,” he said.

Political scientists have determined the ingredients for the success of a political movement, Yankelovich said. They include: the presence of a small group of very committed activists; a large majority of the population that disagrees with the activists’ methods but believes they have a point; and a scapegoat, he also said.

The United States has become a scapegoat in this conflict and needs to step out of that role, Yankelovich said. It needs to make clear that it is not at war with Islam and that it respects Islam’s values, he added. He pointed out that Muslims in the United States are much better off than Muslims in France and the United Kingdom. These steps would isolate activists and make “the long war” much more manageable, Yankelovich said.

“We need to shift back to the position where military intervention is the last resort,” he said.