BP Chief Scientist Outlines Future of Oil Economy

Ioana Patringenaru | July 21, 2008

Fossil fuels are still plentiful underground. But what’s happening above ground means an economy based solely on oil is no longer viable. That was the word this week on campus from a well known scientist who oversees new-energy research efforts at BP, a company formerly known as British Petroleum.

Steve Koonin of BP spoke at the Birch Aquarium July 15.

Steve Koonin, who also has purview over BP’s major university research programs around the world and provides technical advice to the company's senior executives, spoke Tuesday to a standing-room only crowd at the Birch Aquarium.

Koonin, who is a physicist by training, took on the job of chief scientist at BP in 2004, then spent the better part of a year understanding the world’s global energy problems, said Ed Frieman, a former director of UCSD’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who also spoke Tuesday. That research led Koonin to change his views on climate change. BP is perhaps the first oil company to acknowledge that climate change is caused by humans, Frieman pointed out.

Curbing climate change is a phenomenal challenge, Koonin said during his talk. As developing countries’ wealth increases, the demand for energy is expected to increase by 50 percent by 2030. “Nobody uses less energy as they get richer,” Koonin quipped. At the same time, to avoid further increases in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, we have to cut greenhouse gases emissions by half, he added.

“It’s a global problem,” Koonin said. “We have a global economy; we’re all in this together.”

When it comes to cars, Koonin was straight forward in his proposals to cut emissions. “We need to raise the price of driving,” he said. The U.S. government should set a floor on the price of gas, and if prices fall below that floor, it should pocket the difference, Koonin added. But he also said: “My judgment is that the U.S. political system is unable to do that.”

The United States also should push for tighter mileage standards, Koonin said. The European Union is aiming for vehicles that will consume 60 miles per gallon. By contrast, the new U.S. standards aim for 35 miles per gallon. The scientist confessed to owning a sports-utility vehicle while living in California, where he taught and served as provost at Caltech. Now that he lives in London, he doesn’t own a car, he said. He just rides the bus.

UCSD-TV will broadcast Steve Koonin's talk starting Aug. 11.
Click here for more information and airtimes.

Koonin also spoke favorably of hybrid cars. But he cautioned that electric vehicles can’t be the sole answer to our energy problems. Where will all the energy to power electric cars come from, he asked. “If you like plug-in electric vehicles, my guess is that you like nuclear power,” he said, answering his own question.

Koonin also is no fan of corn-based ethanol, which he painted as a political ploy for this election season. But sugar-cane ethanol from Brazil is another story. That fuel is carbon neutral and can be produced for just $25 a gallon, he pointed out. The scientist also said he sees biofuels as the wave of the future.

“Biofuels to my mind are almost a no-brainer,” he said.

Koonin also pointed out that transportation, including cars, accounts for 20 percent of humanity’s energy needs. Electricity and heating account for the remaining 80 percent. “This is about power and heat,” Koonin said, referring to efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

It is important to put a price on CO2 emissions, either through taxes or a cap-and-trade system, Koonin said. It is also important to build homes and offices that are energy-efficient, he added. Designing cities that use power effectively also is key. In addition, natural gas, on-shore wind technologies and carbon capture and storage all can help cut back on emissions, Koonin said. 

After the talk, Robert Dunlap, an Eastlake high school graduate and soon-to-be UCSD freshman, said he had learned a lot from Koonin. “I think it was very informative,” he said of the talk.

Koonin’s appearance was sponsored by the Helen Edison Lecture Series, an ongoing free public lectures series on issues that advance humanitarian purposes and objectives.